Thursday, July 17, 2008

The Change Has Begun.

The rising cost of oil has already set in motion some interesting trends. Driving is down and public transit use it up.
Sales of larger vehicles are declining, which is putting American auto manufacturers in trouble. For years, they have relied on larger vehicles (SUVs) to make most of their profits. With slipping sales, they now have to focus their energy on smaller fuel efficient cars. Even scooter sales are on the rise.
Mass transit is enjoying an increase in riders, but many cities are now experiencing growing pains. They are having trouble keeping up with the demand, and funding is not able to keep up.
We are now trying to catch up to cope with a problem that began many years ago. Unfortunately, we did not heed the warnings until it hit us where it counts - the bottom line. Now that we are beginning to realize the real cost of energy, there is scrambling to figure out how to deal with it. We have been building sprawled out subdivisions for the past 50 years, assuming there would always be cheap oil to allow everyone to drive anywhere they pleased. As a result, we will now have a difficult task ahead if we want to offer alternatives to everyone driving their own vehicle everywhere. Some people will choose to move closer to where they work, or closer to the central part of a city. But, what about the millions of families who are stuck out in suburbia? How do we undo 50 years of sprawling development? It would take years to get good public transit out into the suburbs. Not everyone will be able to move into the city.
Perhaps shopping more locally will start to make sense. Instead of driving 30 miles to Wally World, we might do our shopping at the local grocery, drug, and hardware stores (if you are lucky enough to even still have them). Maybe you will choose to visit the local sites on your vacation instead of driving 500 miles to visit something out of state. Maybe you will dust off that old bike setting in the garage and see if you can use it to visit the local grocery or convenience store.
Even some outsourced jobs may start coming back to America, as transporting goods across the world may become cost inhibited. We may see more locally grown food instead of having our lettuce shipped 3000 miles. We may even have to buy more seasonal fruits and vegetables, since we may not be able to afford produce grown and shipped from countries around the world.
It's probably too late for America to make a smooth transition into living with high energy costs, but hopefully enough people have the common sense to start making adjustments on their own.

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